Official report says US CO2 to rise by 20%

Official report says US CO2 to rise by 20%

· Publication delayed for more than a year
· Authors argue president's efforts 'are working'

Ed Pilkington in New York
Monday March 5, 2007
Guardian

A draft report prepared by the Bush administration admits that emissions of greenhouse gases by the United States will rise by 2020 to 20% above 2000 levels, flying in the face of warnings from scientists that drastic action to cut emissions is needed if environmental catastrophe is to be averted.
The internal administration report, which has been obtained by the Associated Press, should have been handed to the United Nations more than a year ago as part of the world body's monitoring of climate change, but its publication has been delayed. The draft estimates that US emissions of so-called greenhouse gases, largely from the burning of oil, coil and natural gas, will rise from 7.7bn tons in 2000 to 9.2bn tons in 2020 - an increase of 19.5%.

The growth is in line with expectations, but underlines how out of kilter the US government is with world opinion and efforts to tackle climate change. The Kyoto protocol, which the Bush administration has refused to ratify partly on the grounds that it would damage the US economy, demands of most developed countries that they reduce their 1990 emissions levels by 5% by 2012.

The US produces about a quarter of the world's carbon dioxide and other gases believed responsible for warming the world's atmosphere. Environmentalists and green groups say that if irreversible global warming is to be avoided far more stringent targets should be set than even those proposed under the Kyoto protocol, which came into force two years ago. On April 14 campaigners will be demonstrating in cities across the US to call for 80% cuts by 2050.

The draft report obtained by AP says that how much the administration can do to cut emissions beyond merely slowing the rate of increase will become clear "as the science justifies".

It does, however, predict what may happen to the country were global warming allowed to gather pace, including a sharp reduction in spring snow coverings in the north-west of the country, which could exacerbate summer water shortages throughout that region.

The White House council on environmental quality, which is responsible for the draft report, told AP that its final version will "show that the president's portfolio of actions and his financial commitment to addressing climate change are working".

The report's confirmation of the scale of pollution projected for the US comes a month after climatologists issued their strongest warning to date of the devastation that global warming could cause on the planet.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, written by hundreds of the most respected climate scientists from around the world, said that human activity was "very likely" to be behind the phenomenon.

Average temperatures could rise by over 6C (11F) by the end of the century, the panel said.

The stated policy of the Bush administration is to reduce emissions, but so far it has set only voluntary targets. In the absence of binding commitments from the federal government, individual states have moved independently.

California has led the field by aiming to cut its emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and to meet the target of 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.